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hype."},{"id":"competition-limits-harm","set":"being","layer":"empirical","text":"Market competition limits the harm that economic actors can do."},{"id":"ai-cuts-more-jobs-than-it-creates","set":"being","layer":"empirical","text":"Over the next decade, AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates."},{"id":"ai-concentrates-power","set":"being","layer":"empirical","text":"On its current course, advanced AI will concentrate wealth and power in a small number of companies."},{"id":"ai-threatens-shared-truth","set":"being","layer":"empirical","text":"AI-generated content is a serious threat to a society's shared sense of what is true."},{"id":"direction-of-technology-is-chosen","set":"being","layer":"ontological","text":"How technology reshapes work and society is set by collective choices rather than by a fixed course of development."},{"id":"human-end-of-ai","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"AI should serve human beings as its end, and humanity should not be treated as a stage to be surpassed."},{"id":"ai-fear-exceeds-evidence","set":"values","layer":"epistemic","text":"Public fear of AI exceeds what the evidence supports."},{"id":"deployment-harms-over-superintelligence","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"The AI dangers that most deserve attention come from how people deploy AI now, not from autonomous superintelligent agents."},{"id":"ai-moral-status","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"AI systems may come to merit rights or moral consideration."},{"id":"past-technology-is-valid-reference-class","set":"values","layer":"epistemic","text":"The history of earlier general-purpose technologies is a valid guide to how AI will behave and how people will receive it."},{"id":"popular-self-government-worth-keeping","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"Political authority should rest on popular self-government rather than on experts, executives or other unelected powers."},{"id":"market-tech-serves-humans","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"On balance, market-driven technological development is good for people."},{"id":"work-gives-dignity","set":"values","layer":"axiological","text":"Most people would lose dignity and purpose without paid work, even if their income were fully replaced."},{"id":"ai-leaders-honest-about-risks","set":"values","layer":"epistemic","text":"The leaders of major AI companies are being honest with the public about the risks of what they build."},{"id":"regulation-does-more-harm","set":"action","layer":"praxis","text":"Strict AI regulation now would do more harm than good, because it would deter innovation."},{"id":"ai-separate-from-state","set":"action","layer":"praxis","text":"AI development should not be directed or controlled by the state."},{"id":"china-rivalry-justifies-tech-push","set":"action","layer":"praxis","text":"Rivalry with China is a good reason for the United States to push ahead in advanced 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as a new kind of risk","note":"They see a real risk of human extinction from advanced AI, want binding rules and early work on control, and don't think public fear of AI outruns the evidence.","members":["alexandria-ocasio-cortez","andrew-yang","anton-korinek","bernie-sanders","chris-murphy","daniel-kokotajlo","demis-hassabis","eliezer-yudkowsky","elon-musk","erik-hoel","geoffrey-hinton","holly-elmore","jack-clark","max-tegmark","miles-brundage","mustafa-suleyman","richard-blumenthal","sam-altman","scott-alexander","stuart-russell","tristan-harris","vitalik-buterin","william-macaskill","yoshua-bengio","yuval-noah-harari","zvi-mowshowitz"],"children":[{"id":"c1.1","label":"Slow it down and govern it","note":"They want the most powerful AI deliberately slowed and bound by government rules, because they don't trust companies to make it safe on their own."},{"id":"c1.2","label":"Control work before it's needed","note":"They don't think AI's promises are hype, see a real risk of extinction, and want serious work on control well before such systems exist; most oppose releasing the most capable models openly."},{"id":"c1.3","label":"Extinction risk, shared gains","note":"They all see a real risk of extinction; most back a guaranteed income not tied to work and sharing AI's gains directly with citizens, and don't think strict regulation would do more harm than good."},{"id":"c1.4","label":"Ocasio-Cortez and Hoel","note":"Closest here: AI's promises are mostly hype, the most powerful systems should be slowed and bound by government rules, and how technology reshapes society is a collective choice."},{"id":"c1.5","label":"Altman and MacAskill","note":"Closest here: AI's promises are not hype, the risk of extinction is real, and governments should impose binding rules on frontier developers."}]},{"id":"c2","label":"AI as a tool to govern","note":"They see AI as a tool rather than a new kind of mind, put today's harms ahead of superintelligence, and want binding rules because how technology changes society is a collective choice.","members":["arvind-narayanan","asad-ramzanali","audrey-tang","barack-obama","brian-merchant","bruce-schneier","cory-doctorow","daron-acemoglu","e-glen-weyl","ed-zitron","emily-m-bender","gary-marcus","jaron-lanier","jeff-jarvis","joanna-bryson","josh-hawley","karen-hao","meredith-whittaker","pope-leo-xiv","ro-khanna","timnit-gebru"],"children":[{"id":"c2.1","label":"Doubt the hype, want binding rules","note":"They see AI's promises as mostly hype, think that on its current course it will concentrate power in a few companies, and governments should impose binding rules on frontier developers."},{"id":"c2.2","label":"Govern it like past technologies","note":"They see AI as a tool rather than a new kind of mind, treat earlier technologies as a guide to it, and don't think its development should be kept out of the state's hands; most doubt a guaranteed income is the answer."},{"id":"c2.3","label":"Shared truth and 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good.","members":["adam-thierer","curtis-yarvin","daniel-jeffries","david-sacks","dean-ball","guillaume-verdon","jason-crawford","jd-vance","marc-andreessen","mark-zuckerberg","michael-kratsios","nick-land","robin-hanson","taylor-barkley","ted-cruz","tyler-cowen","venkatesh-rao","yann-lecun"],"children":[{"id":"c3.1","label":"Let markets lead AI","note":"Market-driven technology is good for people, public fear of AI outruns the evidence, and earlier technologies are a fair guide to it; most see no real risk of extinction and expect AI to create at least as many jobs as it cuts."},{"id":"c3.2","label":"Progress as a choice","note":"AI's promises are real, how technology reshapes society is a collective choice, market-driven technology is good for people, and strict regulation now would do more harm than good."}]},{"id":"c4","label":"Real promise, real risk, US lead","note":"They see both AI's promise and its risk of extinction as real, back keeping the US ahead of China, and want binding rules and early work on control; most think AI systems may come to merit moral consideration.","members":["dario-amodei","dwarkesh-patel","leopold-aschenbrenner","noah-smith","samuel-hammond"],"children":[{"id":"c4.1","label":"Superintelligence and a US lead","note":"Closest here: autonomous superintelligence deserves at least as much attention as today's misuse, AI's promises are not hype, and most back keeping the US ahead of China."}]}],"camps":[{"label":"AI as a new kind of risk","members":["alexandria-ocasio-cortez","andrew-yang","anton-korinek","bernie-sanders","chris-murphy","daniel-kokotajlo","demis-hassabis","eliezer-yudkowsky","elon-musk","erik-hoel","geoffrey-hinton","holly-elmore","jack-clark","max-tegmark","miles-brundage","mustafa-suleyman","richard-blumenthal","sam-altman","scott-alexander","stuart-russell","tristan-harris","vitalik-buterin","william-macaskill","yoshua-bengio","yuval-noah-harari","zvi-mowshowitz","james-livingston","scott-santens"]},{"label":"AI as a tool to govern","members":["arvind-narayanan","asad-ramzanali","audrey-tang","barack-obama","brian-merchant","bruce-schneier","cory-doctorow","daron-acemoglu","e-glen-weyl","ed-zitron","emily-m-bender","gary-marcus","jaron-lanier","jeff-jarvis","joanna-bryson","josh-hawley","karen-hao","meredith-whittaker","pope-leo-xiv","ro-khanna","timnit-gebru","david-autor","fei-fei-li","liz-shuler","matt-stoller","ruha-benjamin","rumman-chowdhury","safiya-noble"]},{"label":"Market optimists","members":["adam-thierer","curtis-yarvin","daniel-jeffries","david-sacks","dean-ball","guillaume-verdon","jason-crawford","jd-vance","marc-andreessen","mark-zuckerberg","michael-kratsios","nick-land","robin-hanson","taylor-barkley","ted-cruz","tyler-cowen","venkatesh-rao","yann-lecun","balaji-srinivasan","neil-chilson","reid-hoffman"]},{"label":"Real promise, real risk, US lead","members":["dario-amodei","dwarkesh-patel","leopold-aschenbrenner","noah-smith","samuel-hammond"]}],"notes":["Thinkers are read by machine from about three public works each. None of them has reviewed this.","Agreement counts only statements where we found a stated position, never silence.","Schools are working labels made by clustering. The people named should replace them.","Your answers stay in your browser unless you choose to join the room."],"credits":{"pete-buttigieg":{"artist":"United States Department of Transportation","license":"Public domain","license_url":"","source":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Buttigieg,_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg"},"dwarkesh-patel":{"artist":"TechCrunch","license":"CC BY 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0","source":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dwarkesh_Patel_2025_(cropped).jpg"},"nick-land":{"artist":"Koolisid","license":"CC BY-SA 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0","source":"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nick_Land_October_2025_(1x1_cropped).jpg"},"joy-buolamwini":{"artist":"Niccolò Caranti","license":"CC BY-SA 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